EFI·Evidence Fusion Initiative

H004

Additional energetic mechanisms contributed to WTC1 collapse

Competing engineering proposition: explosives, thermite/thermate, or other additional energetics contributed to the destruction of WTC 1 (and, analogously, WTC 2) beyond impact and office fire. Includes Harrit et al. 2009, FDNY explosion reports, FEMA Appendix C, molten-metal observations. NIST negative finding is stored as contradict, not as a gag.

openPhase 2

Likelihood — more or less than 50%

More than 50%

58%

More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources

0% — fully contradicted50%100% — fully supported

Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.21 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 25%. So 50% + 50% × 0.21 × 75% remaining certainty = 58%.

0.5 + 0.5 × 0.21 × (1 − 0.25) = 0.579

Recalculate with sources

Adversarial challenge

  • Contradicting objects: 5
  • Supporting objects: 14
  • Distinct source classes: 5
  • Objects with a zero quality dimension: 4

Version history

  1. v1 · 2009-04-03 · conf 0.28 · unc 0.55

    Harrit chips, FDNY explosion language, FEMA Appendix C, molten metal — none yet a unique fingerprint. NIST negative finding is the principal contradict.

supports8

weakly supports6

neutral1

indeterminate6

contradicts5

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Open review queue

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