EFI/911

EFI·Evidence Fusion Initiative

Fact or Fiction

Fact or Fiction

Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.

Likelihood

Coleen Rowley memo to FBI Director Mueller (May 2002) on the Moussaoui case

More than 50%

58%

More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources

0% — fully contradicted50%100% — fully supported

The score is 58% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.

How 58% was calculated

Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.52 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 69%. So 50% + 50% × 0.52 × 31% remaining certainty = 58%.

Supporting sources

18

Weighted strength 4.15

Contradicting sources

7

Weighted strength 1.30

No stance yet

39

Pulls the score toward 50% · 11.96

Uncertainty

69%

Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing

Working

start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)

0.5 + 0.5 × 0.52 × (1 − 0.69) = 0.581

This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.

Reasoning

  1. Step 1 · Match the question

    Closest stored question: H007 — Saudi-linked individuals knowingly facilitated Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar. Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question. Also close: H004, H006, H014.

  2. Step 2 · Find matching sources

    40 source(s) matched the wording. 17 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 6 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.

  3. Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing

    17 labelled from stored question links, 13 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 34 left with no stance.

  4. Step 4 · Weight each source

    Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 4.15, contradict strength 1.3, no-stance strength 11.96. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.

  5. Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage

    Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.52 × (1 − 0.69) = 0.581.

  6. Step 6 · What this number is not

    This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.

What is still missing

  • 6 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
  • 6 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
  • 39 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
  • A second stored question (H004) also matches this wording. The percentage below is for H007 only — open the other question to compare. Do not average the two numbers.

Closest stored question

H007 · Saudi-linked individuals knowingly facilitated Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar

facilitation · match 6.2

Related questions

Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.

Matching claims

  • disputedCLM-035

    A small CIA Alec Station group intentionally withheld Mihdhar/Hazmi information from the FBI, and the purpose became to allow the attacks.

  • well_supportedCLM-009

    The FBI withheld Bayoumi-related intelligence from the 9/11 Commission.

  • disputedCLM-033

    First-responder explosion-language about the Twin Towers is evidence of demolition charges.

  • disputedCLM-013

    Aircraft impact and the ensuing fires initiated the collapses of WTC 1 and WTC 2 without additional energetic devices.

  • partially_supportedCLM-041

    The U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden more than 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.

  • disputedCLM-016

    Explosives or other additional energetic mechanisms contributed to WTC 7's failure.

Sources that support this

18

Sources that contradict this

7

Sources with no stance yet

39
EVD-032web archiveneutral

Tertiary blog repeating Commission language via a book via a news story

Composite tertiary web commentary (circular-sourcing demonstration) · 2011-09-11

A 2011 web post restates the Bayoumi story without a new primary document.

Quality 0.63 / 5components retained
Prov1
Auth1
Ind1
Contemp0
Corr0
Spec1
Comp1
Chain0

hypothesis link · zeros: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody · human_seed link to H007 (seeded): Circular tertiary repetition. No weight.

Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody.

Topics

Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.

Developed by British researcher Moneypenny

@nic_moneypenny · Subscribe on X from $2 a month for other investigations, and to support this work.

Built with Grok by xAI. EFI / 911 is an independent research project. Neither Moneypenny nor xAI, X, or Grok accepts any liability for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Scores are not court or government findings. Privacy and terms.