Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
H009 Relevant intelligence was withheld from the 9/11 Commission
60%
More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources
The score is 60% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 60% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.84 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 77%. So 50% + 50% × 0.84 × 23% remaining certainty = 60%.
Supporting sources
12
Weighted strength 2.84
Contradicting sources
1
Weighted strength 0.24
No stance yet
29
Pulls the score toward 50% · 10.40
Uncertainty
77%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 0.84 × (1 − 0.77) = 0.597
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
Closest stored question: H009 — Relevant intelligence was withheld from the 9/11 Commission. Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question. Also close: H021, H015, H013.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 5 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 6 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
5 labelled from stored question links, 8 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 29 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 2.84, contradict strength 0.24, no-stance strength 10.4. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.84 × (1 − 0.77) = 0.597.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- 3 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 2 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 29 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
- A second stored question (H021) also matches this wording. The percentage below is for H009 only — open the other question to compare. Do not average the two numbers.
Closest stored question
H009 · Relevant intelligence was withheld from the 9/11 Commissionprocess · match 41.6
Related questions
Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.
Matching claims
- well_supportedCLM-009
The FBI withheld Bayoumi-related intelligence from the 9/11 Commission.
- disputedCLM-031
The 9/11 Commission was not a truth-seeking body; the Report is a 'Zelikow Report' defined by systematic omissions.
- well_supportedCLM-042
About three-quarters of CIA materials cited by the 9/11 Commission, including all KSM interrogation reports, remained withheld as of the 2012 File posting.
- disputedCLM-035
A small CIA Alec Station group intentionally withheld Mihdhar/Hazmi information from the FBI, and the purpose became to allow the attacks.
- disputedCLM-020
Able Danger identified Mohamed Atta's cell before 11 September and was blocked from notifying the FBI.
- unverifiedCLM-022
The five Urban Moving Systems detainees had advance knowledge of the attacks as an Israeli intelligence team.
Sources that support this
12David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in the 9/11 Commission Report (Toronto Report ch.2)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists Commission process constraints (Zelikow, funding, access) and twelve claimed omissions, with footnotes to named books, newspapers, and the Report itself.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H009 (seeded): Commission-process defects are compatible with withholding claims.
CIA 9/11 File posting — 100+ FOIA documents, 19 June 2012
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2012-06-19
In 2012 the National Security Archive posted 100+ CIA documents cited in Commission footnotes, and stated that this was about one-quarter of the CIA material the Commission cited, with KSM interrogation reports still withheld.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H009 (seeded): Editors: three-quarters of Commission-cited CIA files still withheld in 2012, including all KSM interrogations. Withholding from the public, not necessarily from the Commission.
FBI 2017: Commission-era non-confirmation, later confirmation of intel role
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
FBI 2017 text asserts the intelligence-role allegation was unconfirmed in 2004 and is now confirmed.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H009 (seeded): FBI text: allegations not confirmed at Commission time, now confirmed.
Commission leadership: FBI said it wasn't withholding anything
ProPublica / New York Times reporting on declassified FBI files (2023–2024) · 2023-04-27
The Commission chair states the FBI represented that nothing was being withheld.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H009 (seeded): Commission chair: FBI said it was not withholding.
CIA had Mihdhar visa information in January 2000; FBI notified August 2001
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
U.S. intelligence possessed Mihdhar's visa/travel data in January 2000 and did not get it to FBI watchlisting until August 2001.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-035.
9/11 Commission did not investigate WTC 7's collapse mechanism
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
The 9/11 Commission did not produce a collapse-mechanism finding for WTC 7.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-031.
Sources that contradict this
1Commission staff: Able Danger Atta identification not substantiated
9/11 Commission Report · 2005-08-12
Commission staff published that they could not substantiate a pre-9/11 Able Danger identification of Atta.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-020.
Sources with no stance yet
29CIA CTC 2003-40044HC — '11 September: The Plot and the Plotters'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2003-06-01
A 1 June 2003 CIA CTC report titled 11 September: The Plot and the Plotters exists, is a major Commission source, and includes the analytical claim that the Saudi composition of the teams had political as well as visa-access value.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
1998 raw intelligence: UBL hijack trial run at a New York airport
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 1998-12-03
A December 1998 CIA raw report, later a PDB item, stated that a UBL-linked hijack plan was proceeding and that two team members in the U.S. had evaded security in a New York airport trial run.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Hazmi (and later Hanjour) boarded with an FBI informant
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
An FBI informant housed at least one of the two San Diego hijackers.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA IG August 2001: CTC practices reviewed positively — vs later OIG/Commission
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-01
NSArchive records that a CIA Inspector General review completed in August 2001 praised CTC information-management and FBI cooperation, in contrast to the 2004 CIA OIG and the Commission.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Bayoumi locates apartment, co-signs lease, opens bank account
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
Bayoumi performed specific, documented housing and banking tasks for the two men in early February 2000.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Hazmi suspected Bayoumi was a Saudi spy
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
Commission reports Hazmi expressed suspicion that Bayoumi was a Saudi spy.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Commission character assessment of Bayoumi
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
The 2004 Commission published a negative finding on Bayoumi's knowing extremist involvement.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Bayoumi stipend from Saudi Civil Aviation while in San Diego
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
Bayoumi had a Saudi government paycheck in San Diego.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.