H009
Relevant intelligence was withheld from the 9/11 Commission
Material on Saudi-linked assistance, especially regarding Bayoumi's alleged intelligence role, was not provided to or confirmed for the Commission in 2003–2004.
Likelihood — more or less than 50%
94%
More than 50% — well supported by the sources
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 12%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 88% remaining certainty = 94%.
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.12) = 0.940
Recalculate with sourcesAdversarial challenge
- Contradicting objects: 0
- Supporting objects: 5
- Distinct source classes: 3
- Objects with a zero quality dimension: 0
Version history
v1 · 2004-07-22 · conf 0.35 · unc 0.50
Suspicion only, pre-declassification.
v2 · 2022-03-01 · conf 0.74 · unc 0.22
FBI 2017 text plus Commission leadership comments on withholding.
strongly supports1
FBI 2017: Commission-era non-confirmation, later confirmation of intel role
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
FBI 2017 text asserts the intelligence-role allegation was unconfirmed in 2004 and is now confirmed.
human_seed · seeded · FBI text: allegations not confirmed at Commission time, now confirmed.
supports2
Commission leadership: FBI said it wasn't withholding anything
ProPublica / New York Times reporting on declassified FBI files (2023–2024) · 2023-04-27
The Commission chair states the FBI represented that nothing was being withheld.
human_seed · seeded · Commission chair: FBI said it was not withholding.
David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in the 9/11 Commission Report (Toronto Report ch.2)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists Commission process constraints (Zelikow, funding, access) and twelve claimed omissions, with footnotes to named books, newspapers, and the Report itself.
human_seed · seeded · Commission-process defects are compatible with withholding claims.
weakly supports2
Mineta: Cheney asked if 'the orders still stand' as an aircraft approached
Norman Mineta testimony, 9/11 Commission hearing, 23 May 2003 · 2003-05-23
Norman Mineta testified that Cheney confirmed standing orders while being updated on an inbound aircraft's decreasing range.
human_seed · seeded · Mineta PEOC exchange largely unused in the final Report.
CIA 9/11 File posting — 100+ FOIA documents, 19 June 2012
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2012-06-19
In 2012 the National Security Archive posted 100+ CIA documents cited in Commission footnotes, and stated that this was about one-quarter of the CIA material the Commission cited, with KSM interrogation reports still withheld.
human_seed · seeded · Editors: three-quarters of Commission-cited CIA files still withheld in 2012, including all KSM interrogations. Withholding from the public, not necessarily from the Commission.
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