EFI·Evidence Fusion Initiative

H006

Explosives contributed to WTC7 failure

Competing proposition: explosives or other additional energetics contributed to WTC 7's collapse. Inputs include NIST's own free-fall stage, Hulsey 2020, Harrit chips, Silverstein 'pull it', BBC premature report, Jennings/Hess. Official origin of a negative finding does not remove this hypothesis from the board.

openPhase 2

Likelihood — more or less than 50%

More than 50%

63%

More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources

0% — fully contradicted50%100% — fully supported

Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.32 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 17%. So 50% + 50% × 0.32 × 83% remaining certainty = 63%.

0.5 + 0.5 × 0.32 × (1 − 0.17) = 0.633

Recalculate with sources

Adversarial challenge

  • Contradicting objects: 3
  • Supporting objects: 11
  • Distinct source classes: 4
  • Objects with a zero quality dimension: 2

Version history

  1. v1 · 2020-03-01 · conf 0.38 · unc 0.50

    Free-fall stage, Hulsey, Harrit, FDNY, Silverstein clip vs NIST no-explosives. Open; not a verdict.

  2. v2 · 2023-06-01 · conf 0.42 · unc 0.48

    After Chandler/Walter/Szamboti 2023 multi-point WTC 7 roofline paper. Kinematic tension with NIST Stage 1 characterisation rose; chemical identification of explosives did not.

supports6

weakly supports5

neutral2

indeterminate1

weakly contradicts1

contradicts2

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