Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
The Taliban File (NSAEBB 97) and updates
57%
More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources
The score is 57% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 57% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.52 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 74%. So 50% + 50% × 0.52 × 26% remaining certainty = 57%.
Supporting sources
12
Weighted strength 3.10
Contradicting sources
4
Weighted strength 0.98
No stance yet
35
Pulls the score toward 50% · 11.70
Uncertainty
74%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 0.52 × (1 − 0.74) = 0.568
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
Closest stored question: H019 — Published hijacker identities are substantially wrong (some named men were not aboard). Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question. Also close: H007, H004, H014.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 4 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 6 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
4 labelled from stored question links, 13 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 34 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 3.1, contradict strength 0.98, no-stance strength 11.7. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.52 × (1 − 0.74) = 0.568.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- 4 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 7 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 35 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
- A second stored question (H007) also matches this wording. The percentage below is for H019 only — open the other question to compare. Do not average the two numbers.
Closest stored question
H019 · Published hijacker identities are substantially wrong (some named men were not aboard)perpetrators · match 4.7
Related questions
Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.
Matching claims
- partially_supportedCLM-041
The U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden more than 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.
- disputedCLM-013
Aircraft impact and the ensuing fires initiated the collapses of WTC 1 and WTC 2 without additional energetic devices.
- disputedCLM-035
A small CIA Alec Station group intentionally withheld Mihdhar/Hazmi information from the FBI, and the purpose became to allow the attacks.
- verifiedCLM-037
A large born-digital public archive of 11 September emails, stories, and images exists and was acquired by the Library of Congress in 2003.
- verifiedCLM-040
NTSB produced flight-path studies and ATC transcripts for the four hijacked flights and initially refused a public docket.
- well_supportedCLM-042
About three-quarters of CIA materials cited by the 9/11 Commission, including all KSM interrogation reports, remained withheld as of the 2012 File posting.
Sources that support this
12Taliban File update: U.S. pressed Taliban to expel UBL over 30 times
The Taliban File (NSAEBB 97) and updates · 2004-01-30
The National Security Archive's Taliban File update states the U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden over 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-041.
DCI Report draft 19 March 2004: FBI dissemination still 'spotty'; cultures clash
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2004-03-19
A March 2004 CIA draft history says FBI internal dissemination remained so weak that CIA officers still hand-delivered messages, and that FBI-CIA cultural clash impeded results.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-042.
CIA 9/11 File posting — 100+ FOIA documents, 19 June 2012
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2012-06-19
In 2012 the National Security Archive posted 100+ CIA documents cited in Commission footnotes, and stated that this was about one-quarter of the CIA material the Commission cited, with KSM interrogation reports still withheld.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-042.
UA93 ACARS 09:23 and 09:28 mayday — NSAEBB 196 quotation
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2001-09-11
NTSB ACARS/ATC text quoted by NSArchive: UA93 received a 09:23 warning about cockpit intrusion and the NY impacts, then at 09:28 transmitted a mayday / 'hey get out of here' as it was hijacked.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-040.
NTSB path studies and ATC transcripts FOIA'd by NSArchive (Aug 2006)
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2006-08-11
In August 2006 NTSB released to the National Security Archive the four-flight ATC transcripts, three path studies, and the UA93 DFDR specialist report, after refusing to open its own public docket.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-040.
NIST NCSTAR 1: impact plus fire initiated collapse of WTC 1 and WTC 2
NIST NCSTAR 1 — Final Report on the Collapse of the World Trade Center Towers (2005) · 2005-09-01
NIST published a fire-and-impact initiation sequence for WTC 1 and WTC 2 in 2005.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-013.
BBC 23 September 2001: some named hijackers reported still alive
BBC News, 23 September 2001 — reports that some named hijackers were still alive · 2001-09-23
Reputable outlets reported in September 2001 that some named hijackers were alive.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H019 (seeded): BBC still-alive reports in week one.
NIST: no corroborating evidence for explosives or thermite
NIST WTC investigation FAQs (towers and WTC 7) · 2019-11-20
NIST published a negative finding on explosives and thermite as collapse causes.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-013.
Sources that contradict this
4Commission: hijacker-still-alive reports were mistaken identity
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
The Commission treats early 'hijackers alive' stories as identification errors.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H019 (seeded): Commission: mistaken identity.
Commission: AA11 struck WTC1 at 08:46:40
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
A large aircraft identified as AA11 struck WTC 1 at 08:46:40 on 11 September 2001.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H019 (seeded): AA11 as a real flight with named hijacker-pilot Atta is multiply sourced.
Harrit et al. 2009: active thermitic red/gray chips in WTC dust
Harrit, Farrer, Jones, Ryan et al., The Open Chemical Physics Journal 2:7–31 (2009) · 2009-04-03
A 2009 peer-reviewed paper reports energetic red/gray chips in WTC dust that the authors identify as unreacted thermitic material.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-013.
FDNY oral histories: multiple firefighters report explosions
New York Fire Department oral histories (released 2005 after lawsuit) · 2005-08-12
Multiple trained first responders independently described explosion-like events at the WTC site on 11 September 2001.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-013.
Sources with no stance yet
35Natalie Schilling — Linguistic analysis of AA11 transmissions purported to be Mohamed Atta (Apr 2026)
Natalie Schilling, Linguistic Analysis of AA11 transmissions purported to be Mohamed Atta (April 2026) and addendum (August 2026) · 2026-04-01
A 2026 linguistic report on AA11 audio attributed to Atta was published under IC911 Reports, authored by Natalie Schilling, Ph.D.
hypothesis link · zeros: contemporaneity · human_seed link to H019 (seeded): Linguistic report title does not state whether the speaker is Atta.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
September 11th Sourcebooks index (NSArchive volumes I–VII and updates)
National Security Archive — September 11th Sourcebooks · 2026-09-03
The National Security Archive organised a September 11th Sourcebook series of at least seven volumes plus later FOIA postings on Clarke, FAA, and NTSB transcripts.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
The Osama Bin Laden File (NSAEBB 343), posted 2 May 2011
The Osama Bin Laden File (NSAEBB 343) · 2011-05-02
On the day of bin Laden's death the National Security Archive posted an Osama Bin Laden File that is an index of prior FOIA briefing books on UBL, Pakistan, and the Taliban.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA IG August 2001: CTC practices reviewed positively — vs later OIG/Commission
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-01
NSArchive records that a CIA Inspector General review completed in August 2001 praised CTC information-management and FBI cooperation, in contrast to the 2004 CIA OIG and the Commission.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA SEIBs June–August 2001: Bin Ladin attacks 'imminent' / 'in the US'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-07
CIA senior briefs from June–August 2001 repeatedly warned of imminent Bin Ladin operations, including a 7 August SEIB titled 'Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in the US', and a 24 August note that an associated individual was considering U.S. operations without timing or targets.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA CTC 2003-40044HC — '11 September: The Plot and the Plotters'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2003-06-01
A 1 June 2003 CIA CTC report titled 11 September: The Plot and the Plotters exists, is a major Commission source, and includes the analytical claim that the Saudi composition of the teams had political as well as visa-access value.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Predator over Afghanistan, autumn 2000: likely UBL, no shoot capability
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2004-03-19
CIA notes in the 2012 File say an unarmed Predator twice observed a person most likely to be bin Laden in autumn 2000 and could not act.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
1998 raw intelligence: UBL hijack trial run at a New York airport
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 1998-12-03
A December 1998 CIA raw report, later a PDB item, stated that a UBL-linked hijack plan was proceeding and that two team members in the U.S. had evaded security in a New York airport trial run.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.