Predator over Afghanistan, autumn 2000: likely UBL, no shoot capability

Observation

CIA notes in the 2012 File say an unarmed Predator twice observed a person most likely to be bin Laden in autumn 2000 and could not act.

Interpretation

Supports a pre-attack collection-and-capability failure reading of H008. Does not show a political order to let bin Laden live.

Source text

OBSERVATION (NSAEBB 381, quoting CIA notes also appearing in the 19 March 2004 DCI Report draft). First Predator mission over Afghanistan 7 September 2000. Twice that autumn an individual 'most likely to be Bin Ladin' was observed; the UAV could not fire. American UAVs 'did not have sufficient weapons capabilities at the time.'

This is a capability-gap observation, not a stand-down finding.

Hypothesis linkage

• H008supportsseeded

  Unarmed Predator observation of likely UBL is a collection-without-action fact.