Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
FBI Vault — Counterterrorism FOIA library (blocked at ingest)
55%
More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources
The score is 55% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 55% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.71 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 85%. So 50% + 50% × 0.71 × 15% remaining certainty = 55%.
Supporting sources
7
Weighted strength 1.69
Contradicting sources
1
Weighted strength 0.29
No stance yet
34
Pulls the score toward 50% · 10.64
Uncertainty
85%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 0.71 × (1 − 0.85) = 0.553
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
Closest stored question: H015 — Able Danger identified Atta's cell before 9/11 and was blocked from warning the FBI. Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question. Also close: H014, H008.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 2 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 4 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
2 labelled from stored question links, 6 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 34 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 1.69, contradict strength 0.29, no-stance strength 10.64. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.71 × (1 − 0.85) = 0.553.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- 9 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 5 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 34 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
- A second stored question (H014) also matches this wording. The percentage below is for H015 only — open the other question to compare. Do not average the two numbers.
Closest stored question
H015 · Able Danger identified Atta's cell before 9/11 and was blocked from warning the FBIintelligence_failure · match 5.9
Related questions
Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.
Matching claims
- disputedCLM-020
Able Danger identified Mohamed Atta's cell before 11 September and was blocked from notifying the FBI.
- disputedCLM-035
A small CIA Alec Station group intentionally withheld Mihdhar/Hazmi information from the FBI, and the purpose became to allow the attacks.
- well_supportedCLM-009
The FBI withheld Bayoumi-related intelligence from the 9/11 Commission.
- verifiedCLM-040
NTSB produced flight-path studies and ATC transcripts for the four hijacked flights and initially refused a public docket.
Sources that support this
7Able Danger: Shaffer/Weldon say Atta's Brooklyn cell was identified before 9/11
Able Danger hearings and Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer / Rep. Curt Weldon statements (2005) · 2005-09-21
Able Danger officers testified they had identified Atta before 9/11 and were blocked from notifying the FBI. Commission staff found the claim unsupported.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H015 (seeded): Shaffer/Weldon Atta-identification testimony.
Commission leadership: FBI said it wasn't withholding anything
ProPublica / New York Times reporting on declassified FBI files (2023–2024) · 2023-04-27
The Commission chair states the FBI represented that nothing was being withheld.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-009.
CIA had Mihdhar visa information in January 2000; FBI notified August 2001
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
U.S. intelligence possessed Mihdhar's visa/travel data in January 2000 and did not get it to FBI watchlisting until August 2001.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-035.
FBI 2017: Commission-era non-confirmation, later confirmation of intel role
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
FBI 2017 text asserts the intelligence-role allegation was unconfirmed in 2004 and is now confirmed.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-009.
NTSB path studies and ATC transcripts FOIA'd by NSArchive (Aug 2006)
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2006-08-11
In August 2006 NTSB released to the National Security Archive the four-flight ATC transcripts, three path studies, and the UA93 DFDR specialist report, after refusing to open its own public docket.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-040.
UA93 ACARS 09:23 and 09:28 mayday — NSAEBB 196 quotation
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2001-09-11
NTSB ACARS/ATC text quoted by NSArchive: UA93 received a 09:23 warning about cockpit intrusion and the NY impacts, then at 09:28 transmitted a mayday / 'hey get out of here' as it was hijacked.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-040.
Sources that contradict this
1Commission staff: Able Danger Atta identification not substantiated
9/11 Commission Report · 2005-08-12
Commission staff published that they could not substantiate a pre-9/11 Able Danger identification of Atta.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H015 (seeded): Commission staff unsubstantiated.
Sources with no stance yet
34FBI Vault counterterrorism library — HTTP 403 at ingest
FBI Vault — Counterterrorism FOIA library (blocked at ingest) · 2026-09-03
The FBI Vault counterterrorism URLs named by the SHSU guide returned 403 on 3 September 2026; no files were retrieved.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody.
Veterans History Project — Iraq War box; loc.gov 403
SHSU Library — U.S. History: Primary Source Collections Online (9/11 page) · 2026-09-03
The guide's Iraq-war Veterans History Project link did not yield files at ingest.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody.
Coleen Rowley: FBI HQ blocked a FISA search of Moussaoui's laptop
Coleen Rowley memo to FBI Director Mueller (May 2002) on the Moussaoui case · 2002-05-21
A flight-school student connected to radical jihadist travel was in FBI custody before 11 September; a requested FISA search was not obtained.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA IG August 2001: CTC practices reviewed positively — vs later OIG/Commission
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-01
NSArchive records that a CIA Inspector General review completed in August 2001 praised CTC information-management and FBI cooperation, in contrast to the 2004 CIA OIG and the Commission.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA 9/11 File posting — 100+ FOIA documents, 19 June 2012
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2012-06-19
In 2012 the National Security Archive posted 100+ CIA documents cited in Commission footnotes, and stated that this was about one-quarter of the CIA material the Commission cited, with KSM interrogation reports still withheld.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Newseum Today's Front Pages (12 Sep 2001 and 2 May 2011) — URLs dead
SHSU Library — U.S. History: Primary Source Collections Online (9/11 page) · 2026-09-03
The Newseum front-page URLs in the SHSU guide were dead at ingest.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody.
SHSU LibGuide page: 9/11 Attack, Afghan and Iraq Wars
SHSU Library — U.S. History: Primary Source Collections Online (9/11 page) · 2026-04-16
On 3 September 2026 the SHSU guide listed eight 9/11-related collections and one Iraq-war Veterans History Project link, with the annotations quoted in full_text.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
September 11 Digital Archive — holdings statement
September 11 Digital Archive (RRCHNM / ASHP) · 2026-09-03
The Archive states a 150,000-item holding and a 2003 Library of Congress acquisition. Public Omeka browse listed 70,359 items on 3 Sep 2026.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.