Fact or Fiction

Reasoning

1. Step 1 · Match the question

   No stored question matched closely enough. Near misses: H008, H012, H015, H019, H020. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.

2. Step 2 · Find matching sources

   40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 3 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.

3. Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing

   0 labelled from stored question links, 5 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 36 left with no stance.

4. Step 4 · Weight each source

   Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 1.23, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 11.36. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.

5. Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage

   Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.90) = 0.550.

6. Step 6 · What this number is not

   This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.

What is still missing

• This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
• 3 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
• 4 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
• 36 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.

Related questions

Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.

• H012Unusual pre-attack put-option activity reflected advance knowledge of the attacks51%
• H015Able Danger identified Atta's cell before 9/11 and was blocked from warning the FBI41%
• H019Published hijacker identities are substantially wrong (some named men were not aboard)29%

Matching claims

• disputedCLM-035

  A small CIA Alec Station group intentionally withheld Mihdhar/Hazmi information from the FBI, and the purpose became to allow the attacks.

• well_supportedCLM-009

  The FBI withheld Bayoumi-related intelligence from the 9/11 Commission.

• partially_supportedCLM-041

  The U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden more than 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.

None in this calculation.