Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
NORAD
68%
More than 50% — supported by the sources
The score is 68% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 68% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 64%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 36% remaining certainty = 68%.
Supporting sources
7
Weighted strength 1.64
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
9
Pulls the score toward 50% · 2.75
Uncertainty
64%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.64) = 0.680
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
Closest stored question: H011 — NORAD/FAA response failure was more than accident (exercises, false timeline, or interference). Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
14 source(s) matched the wording. 8 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 1 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
8 labelled from stored question links, 0 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 8 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 1.64, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 2.75. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.64) = 0.680.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- 4 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 1 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 9 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
Closest stored question
H011 · NORAD/FAA response failure was more than accident (exercises, false timeline, or interference)air_defence · match 7.9
Matching claims
- partially_supportedCLM-026
NORAD/FAA war-games and false timelines indicate the air-defence failure was more than accident.
Sources that support this
7David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in official accounts of AA77 and UA93 (Toronto Report ch.7)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists named process contradictions on AA77 notification and UA93 notification, plus Pentagon-object and UA93-shoot-down arguments with named witnesses and an FAA memo.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): FAA 22 May 2003 memo vs Commission 9:24 notification story.
NORAD exercises on 11 September including Vigilant Guardian
Michael Bronner, '9/11 Live: The NORAD Tapes,' Vanity Fair (August 2006) · 2006-08-01
NORAD was running exercises on 11 September that included hijack-related injects, and operators asked whether reports were exercise or real.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): Hijack-themed exercises running the same morning.
John Farmer: NORAD and some FAA accounts of 11 September were not true
John Farmer / 9/11 Commission staff statements on NORAD and FAA accounts · 2004-07-22
Commission senior counsel stated that NORAD's (and some FAA) accounts were not true.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): Commission counsel: NORAD/FAA accounts were not true.
Commission / NORAD tapes: delayed notification and a phantom AA11
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
Military notification lagged FAA awareness; a phantom AA11 was injected into the response.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): Phantom AA11 and delayed notification.
Vanity Fair 2006: NORAD tapes vs earlier public NORAD timeline
Michael Bronner, '9/11 Live: The NORAD Tapes,' Vanity Fair (August 2006) · 2006-08-01
Published tape reconstruction shows NORAD's early public timeline was inconsistent with its own audio.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): Tapes contradict NORAD's first public timeline.
Kevin Ryan — Lies and Obstruction: Indefensible Air Defenses on 9/11 (8 Sep 2024)
International Center for 9/11 Justice · 2024-09-08
Ryan presented a 2024 talk arguing 9/11 air defences were 'indefensible' in a stronger sense than fog-of-war.
hypothesis link · zeros: contemporaneity · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): 2024 Ryan air-defence presentation; secondary to tapes.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
Peter Dale Scott — 9/11 Commission deception, Cheney's actions, why he should testify under oath (Feb 2007)
Journal of 9/11 Studies · 2007-02-01
Scott published a 2007 process paper on Commission deception and Cheney's 9/11 actions, later expanded as Toronto ch.5.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): Cheney-actions strand of air-defence hypotheses.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
9Mineta: Cheney asked if 'the orders still stand' as an aircraft approached
Norman Mineta testimony, 9/11 Commission hearing, 23 May 2003 · 2003-05-23
Norman Mineta testified that Cheney confirmed standing orders while being updated on an inbound aircraft's decreasing range.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H011 (seeded): Mineta/Cheney orders — content of the orders unspecified.
April 2000: CTC/UBL to move from offensive to defensive for budget reasons
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2000-04-05
A 5 April 2000 CIA note says the bin Laden unit would move from offensive to defensive posture because a counterterrorism supplemental was still stuck at NSC-OMB.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Taliban File update: U.S. pressed Taliban to expel UBL over 30 times
The Taliban File (NSAEBB 97) and updates · 2004-01-30
The National Security Archive's Taliban File update states the U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden over 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Stratesec / Marvin Bush board role at a firm with WTC security work
Composite tertiary web commentary (circular-sourcing demonstration) · 2005-01-01
A firm with some WTC security work had a Bush family board member years before 9/11.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity, corroboration, chain_of_custody.
Columbia 9/11 Oral History Project — holdings statement
Columbia Center for Oral History Research — September 11 Oral History Project · 2026-09-03
Columbia's 9/11 oral-history project reports five programmes, over 900 hours with over 600 people, 351 of them open, plus a 2011 book. Transcripts were not ingested.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Wikipedia, 9/11 conspiracy theories — article as finding aid (retrieved 3 Sep 2026)
Wikipedia — 9/11 conspiracy theories (encyclopedia article) · 2026-09-03
On 3 September 2026 the Wikipedia article listed the main 9/11 conspiracy-theory families and pointed at Commission, NIST, State Department, Eagar, and Popular Mechanics as external sources.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
Wikipedia sub-articles: WTC demolition theories, advance knowledge, 9/11 truth movement
Wikipedia — 9/11 conspiracy theories (encyclopedia article) · 2026-09-03
Wikipedia's demolition, advance-knowledge, and truth-movement pages repeat named sources already on this board; they did not add a new primary measurement.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
Lorie Van Auken and Bob McIlvaine — Toronto Report ch.1 family testimony
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Two 9/11 family members testified in 2011 about their dead, the Jersey Girls' campaign for a full investigation, three NORAD public timelines, and Van Auken's contemporaneous unease at the Florida classroom footage.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.