EFI·Evidence Fusion Initiative

H010

Bayoumi's assistance was un-tasked hospitality (competing explanation)

The housing and banking help was coincidental community support by a gregarious expatriate, consistent with KSM's instruction that the operatives seek mosque help, and does not imply Saudi-government tasking or plot knowledge.

openPhase 1

Likelihood — more or less than 50%

Less than 50%

48%

Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way

0% — fully contradicted50%100% — fully supported

Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is -0.05 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 12%. So 50% + 50% × -0.05 × 88% remaining certainty = 48%.

0.5 + 0.5 × -0.05 × (1 − 0.12) = 0.478

Recalculate with sources

Adversarial challenge

  • Contradicting objects: 2
  • Supporting objects: 3
  • Distinct source classes: 2
  • Objects with a zero quality dimension: 0

Version history

  1. v1 · 2004-07-22 · conf 0.58 · unc 0.40

    Commission character assessment plus KSM mosque-help instruction.

  2. v2 · 2024-08-01 · conf 0.28 · unc 0.42

    Weakened by FBI cooptee finding and 2024 judicial inference; not eliminated.

supports2

weakly supports1

contradicts2

Human review can dispute any AI or seeded link. Seeded links are labelled and are not silent overwrites.

Open review queue

Developed by British researcher Moneypenny

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