Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
Richard Clarke memo to Condoleezza Rice, 25 January 2001 (NSAEBB 147)
55%
Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way
The score is 55% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 55% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 91%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 9% remaining certainty = 55%.
Supporting sources
4
Weighted strength 1.20
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
37
Pulls the score toward 50% · 12.47
Uncertainty
91%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.91) = 0.545
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
No stored question matched closely enough. Near misses: H019, H001. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 1 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
0 labelled from stored question links, 4 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 37 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 1.2, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 12.47. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.91) = 0.545.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
- 6 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 6 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 37 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
Related questions
Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.
Matching claims
- verifiedCLM-007
U.S. agencies had actionable information on Mihdhar's U.S. visa in January 2000 and failed to watchlist him until August 2001.
Sources that support this
4CIA email 21 August 2001: 'Re: Khalid Al-Mihdhar'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-21
A CIA email dated 21 August 2001 is titled Re: Khalid Al-Mihdhar and is a Commission Chapter 8 citation.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-007.
CIA had Mihdhar visa information in January 2000; FBI notified August 2001
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
U.S. intelligence possessed Mihdhar's visa/travel data in January 2000 and did not get it to FBI watchlisting until August 2001.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-007.
DOJ OIG: FBI handling of Hazmi/Mihdhar intelligence
DOJ Office of Inspector General review of FBI handling of 9/11-related intelligence · 2004-11-01
An oversight body found FBI process failures regarding the two hijackers already in the United States.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-007.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
37Clarke to Rice, 25 January 2001: Principals-level review of al-Qaeda urgently needed
Richard Clarke memo to Condoleezza Rice, 25 January 2001 (NSAEBB 147) · 2001-01-25
On 25 January 2001 Richard Clarke wrote to Condoleezza Rice that a Principals-level review of al-Qaeda was urgently needed.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in the 9/11 Commission Report (Toronto Report ch.2)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists Commission process constraints (Zelikow, funding, access) and twelve claimed omissions, with footnotes to named books, newspapers, and the Report itself.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA IG August 2001: CTC practices reviewed positively — vs later OIG/Commission
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-01
NSArchive records that a CIA Inspector General review completed in August 2001 praised CTC information-management and FBI cooperation, in contrast to the 2004 CIA OIG and the Commission.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Peter Dale Scott — 9/11 as a deep event: CIA personnel helped allow it (Toronto Report ch.5)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Scott's 2012 chapter restates a documented CIA-to-FBI withholding pattern around Mihdhar and Hazmi (Malaysia 2000, visa, watchlisting) attributed to a small Alec Station group, and adds a Saudi-GID liaison hypothesis plus an 'allowed to proceed' inference.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA CTC 2003-40044HC — '11 September: The Plot and the Plotters'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2003-06-01
A 1 June 2003 CIA CTC report titled 11 September: The Plot and the Plotters exists, is a major Commission source, and includes the analytical claim that the Saudi composition of the teams had political as well as visa-access value.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
NTSB path studies and ATC transcripts FOIA'd by NSArchive (Aug 2006)
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2006-08-11
In August 2006 NTSB released to the National Security Archive the four-flight ATC transcripts, three path studies, and the UA93 DFDR specialist report, after refusing to open its own public docket.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in official accounts of AA77 and UA93 (Toronto Report ch.7)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists named process contradictions on AA77 notification and UA93 notification, plus Pentagon-object and UA93-shoot-down arguments with named witnesses and an FAA memo.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
September 11th Sourcebooks index (NSArchive volumes I–VII and updates)
National Security Archive — September 11th Sourcebooks · 2026-09-03
The National Security Archive organised a September 11th Sourcebook series of at least seven volumes plus later FOIA postings on Clarke, FAA, and NTSB transcripts.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.