Fact or Fiction

Reasoning

1. Step 1 · Match the question

   Closest stored question: H007 — Saudi-linked individuals knowingly facilitated Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar. Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question. Also close: H003, H004, H012.

2. Step 2 · Find matching sources

   40 source(s) matched the wording. 17 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 6 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.

3. Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing

   17 labelled from stored question links, 11 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 32 left with no stance.

4. Step 4 · Weight each source

   Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 4.1, contradict strength 0.83, no-stance strength 11.14. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.

5. Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage

   Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.66 × (1 − 0.70) = 0.599.

6. Step 6 · What this number is not

   This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.

What is still missing

• 10 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
• 12 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
• 38 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
• A second stored question (H003) also matches this wording. The percentage below is for H007 only — open the other question to compare. Do not average the two numbers.

Related questions

Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.

• H003Aircraft impact and subsequent fire initiated WTC1 collapse77%
• H004Additional energetic mechanisms contributed to WTC1 collapse58%
• H012Unusual pre-attack put-option activity reflected advance knowledge of the attacks51%

Matching claims

• well_supportedCLM-039

  CIA senior products in summer 2001 described Bin Ladin attacks as imminent, including a strike in the US, without time/place/target.

• verifiedCLM-007

  U.S. agencies had actionable information on Mihdhar's U.S. visa in January 2000 and failed to watchlist him until August 2001.

• partially_supportedCLM-041

  The U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden more than 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.

• verifiedCLM-001

  Omar al-Bayoumi provided housing and banking assistance to Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar in San Diego in February 2000.

• disputedCLM-030

  WTC 7's entire measurable north and west rooflines instantaneously transitioned to free fall, a behaviour NIST's Stage 1 description conceals.

• disputedCLM-010

  Bayoumi's assistance was ordinary Muslim hospitality with no tasking.