Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
FEMA 403 — World Trade Center Building Performance Study (2002)
58%
More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources
The score is 58% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 58% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 84%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 16% remaining certainty = 58%.
Supporting sources
6
Weighted strength 2.32
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
37
Pulls the score toward 50% · 11.79
Uncertainty
84%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.84) = 0.580
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
Closest stored question: H001 — AA11 struck WTC1. Yes/no labels are taken from sources already linked to that question. Also close: H002, H005, H004.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 5 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 2 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
5 labelled from stored question links, 1 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 37 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 2.32, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 11.79. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.84) = 0.580.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- 7 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 8 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 37 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
- A second stored question (H002) also matches this wording. The percentage below is for H001 only — open the other question to compare. Do not average the two numbers.
Closest stored question
H001 · AA11 struck WTC1day-of · match 5.2
Related questions
Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.
Matching claims
- verifiedCLM-011
American Airlines Flight 11 struck World Trade Center 1 at 08:46:40 on 11 September 2001.
- verifiedCLM-012
United Airlines Flight 175 struck World Trade Center 2 at 09:03:11.
Sources that support this
6Commission: AA11 struck WTC1 at 08:46:40
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
A large aircraft identified as AA11 struck WTC 1 at 08:46:40 on 11 September 2001.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H001 (seeded): Commission + live video of AA11 into WTC1.
Commission: UA175 struck WTC2 at 09:03:11
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
A large aircraft identified as UA175 struck WTC 2 at 09:03:11, captured on live television.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-012.
Sonic Memorial: Eva Garfield Greenwich Village voicemails, 11 September
September 11 Digital Archive (RRCHNM / ASHP) · 2001-09-11
The Sonic Memorial collection includes saved 11 September voicemails in which Eva Garfield, from Greenwich Street, says she watched the towers fall, plus other WTC-building memory recordings.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H001 (seeded): Village voicemail caption: watched the towers fall.
Eric Salter — Critical review of WTC 'no plane' theories (Sep 2006)
Journal of 9/11 Studies · 2006-09-01
The journal published a 2006 critical review of no-plane theories for the WTC.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H001 (seeded): In-cluster critique of no-plane theories.
911DA email: 6 blocks from Ground Zero, second-plane sound
September 11 Digital Archive (RRCHNM / ASHP) · 2001-09-12
A public-archive email describes street-level ash, paper, a 08:53 Wall Street exit, and the sound of a second aircraft hitting the South Tower from 5–6 blocks away, plus a Pentagon-evacuation report from Washington.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H001 (seeded): Street-level ash/paper after 08:53 plus a second aircraft sound is consistent with AA11 then UA175.
NTSB path studies and ATC transcripts FOIA'd by NSArchive (Aug 2006)
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2006-08-11
In August 2006 NTSB released to the National Security Archive the four-flight ATC transcripts, three path studies, and the UA93 DFDR specialist report, after refusing to open its own public docket.
hypothesis link · human_seed link to H001 (seeded): AA11 path study in the same FOIA set.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
37FEMA Appendix C: sulfidized / eutectic-attacked steel samples
FEMA 403 — World Trade Center Building Performance Study (2002) · 2002-05-01
FEMA published photomicrographs of WTC steel with unusual sulfidation/eutectic thinning and said the sulfur source was unidentified.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
FEMA 2002: WTC 7 fire-induced progressive collapse; further study needed
FEMA 403 — World Trade Center Building Performance Study (2002) · 2002-05-01
An early official engineering team attributed WTC 7 to fire while flagging that the mechanism was not fully understood.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Rapid recycling of WTC steel before a full forensic metallurgical programme
FEMA 403 — World Trade Center Building Performance Study (2002) · 2002-05-01
Most WTC structural steel was recycled before a full federal engineering investigation existed.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
NIST NCSTAR 1A: WTC 7 collapse initiated by fire-induced buckling of Column 79
NIST NCSTAR 1A — Final Report on the Collapse of World Trade Center Building 7 (2008) · 2008-11-20
NIST attributes WTC 7's collapse to fire-induced failure beginning at Column 79, with global collapse at 17:20.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Kevin R. Ryan — Why the NIST World Trade Center Reports are False (Toronto Report ch.3)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Ryan cites NIST test and model figures (steel temperatures, sag, expansion, fire duration) and states they do not support the published collapse sequences; he notes NIST did not release its global models for independent runs.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
NIST NCSTAR 1: impact plus fire initiated collapse of WTC 1 and WTC 2
NIST NCSTAR 1 — Final Report on the Collapse of the World Trade Center Towers (2005) · 2005-09-01
NIST published a fire-and-impact initiation sequence for WTC 1 and WTC 2 in 2005.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
9/11 Commission did not investigate WTC 7's collapse mechanism
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
The 9/11 Commission did not produce a collapse-mechanism finding for WTC 7.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Eagar & Musso 2001: WTC fires did not melt steel; floor-truss connections were the weak point
Thomas W. Eagar & Christopher Musso — Why Did the World Trade Center Collapse? Science, Engineering, and Speculation (JOM, Dec 2001) · 2001-12-01
In December 2001 MIT materials engineers published that WTC fires were not hot enough to melt steel and that weakened floor-truss connections were the likely weak point.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.