Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
FAA air traffic
53%
Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way
The score is 53% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 53% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 94%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 6% remaining certainty = 53%.
Supporting sources
3
Weighted strength 0.86
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
37
Pulls the score toward 50% · 12.41
Uncertainty
94%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.94) = 0.530
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
No stored question matched closely enough. Near misses: H011. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 1 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
0 labelled from stored question links, 3 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 37 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 0.86, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 12.41. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.94) = 0.530.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
- 7 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 5 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 37 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
Matching claims
- partially_supportedCLM-026
NORAD/FAA war-games and false timelines indicate the air-defence failure was more than accident.
Sources that support this
3Commission / NORAD tapes: delayed notification and a phantom AA11
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
Military notification lagged FAA awareness; a phantom AA11 was injected into the response.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-026.
John Farmer: NORAD and some FAA accounts of 11 September were not true
John Farmer / 9/11 Commission staff statements on NORAD and FAA accounts · 2004-07-22
Commission senior counsel stated that NORAD's (and some FAA) accounts were not true.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-026.
NORAD exercises on 11 September including Vigilant Guardian
Michael Bronner, '9/11 Live: The NORAD Tapes,' Vanity Fair (August 2006) · 2006-08-01
NORAD was running exercises on 11 September that included hijack-related injects, and operators asked whether reports were exercise or real.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-026.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
37Flight 93: white jet / C-130 and shoot-down rumours
NTSB flight-path studies, Air Traffic Control tapes, and CVR/FDR summaries (AA11, UA175, AA77, UA93) · 2001-09-11
Other aircraft were near UA93 at the end, and wreckage was distributed along a path, not a single postage-stamp hole only.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
NTSB flight-path study: AA77 from Dulles to the Pentagon
NTSB flight-path studies, Air Traffic Control tapes, and CVR/FDR summaries (AA11, UA175, AA77, UA93) · 2002-02-19
NTSB reconstructed a continuous radar/path track of AA77 from takeoff to the Pentagon.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
NTSB path studies and ATC transcripts FOIA'd by NSArchive (Aug 2006)
NTSB flight-path studies and ATC transcripts released via NSArchive (NSAEBB 196) · 2006-08-11
In August 2006 NTSB released to the National Security Archive the four-flight ATC transcripts, three path studies, and the UA93 DFDR specialist report, after refusing to open its own public docket.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in official accounts of AA77 and UA93 (Toronto Report ch.7)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists named process contradictions on AA77 notification and UA93 notification, plus Pentagon-object and UA93-shoot-down arguments with named witnesses and an FAA memo.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
September 11th Sourcebooks index (NSArchive volumes I–VII and updates)
National Security Archive — September 11th Sourcebooks · 2026-09-03
The National Security Archive organised a September 11th Sourcebook series of at least seven volumes plus later FOIA postings on Clarke, FAA, and NTSB transcripts.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
1998 raw intelligence: UBL hijack trial run at a New York airport
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 1998-12-03
A December 1998 CIA raw report, later a PDB item, stated that a UBL-linked hijack plan was proceeding and that two team members in the U.S. had evaded security in a New York airport trial run.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
FBI: Thumairy tasked an associate; 'two very significant people'
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2021-09-11
Declassified FBI reporting asserts Thumairy tasked help and described the pair as very significant before the attacks.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Kevin Ryan — Lies and Obstruction: Indefensible Air Defenses on 9/11 (8 Sep 2024)
International Center for 9/11 Justice · 2024-09-08
Ryan presented a 2024 talk arguing 9/11 air defences were 'indefensible' in a stronger sense than fog-of-war.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.