H012
Unusual pre-attack put-option activity reflected advance knowledge of the attacks
Someone in the securities markets was positioned for airline-stock declines because they knew the attacks were coming. Distinct from the weaker claim that volume was merely statistically unusual.
Likelihood — more or less than 50%
51%
Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.02 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 20%. So 50% + 50% × 0.02 × 80% remaining certainty = 51%.
0.5 + 0.5 × 0.02 × (1 − 0.20) = 0.508
Recalculate with sourcesAdversarial challenge
- Contradicting objects: 1
- Supporting objects: 2
- Distinct source classes: 3
- Objects with a zero quality dimension: 1
Version history
v1 · 2006-07-01 · conf 0.22 · unc 0.60
Poteshman unusual volume vs Commission/SEC no-identified-plot-trader finding.
supports2
Poteshman 2006: unusual put-option volume on airlines before 9/11
Allen M. Poteshman, 'Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001,' Journal of Business 79(4) (2006) · 2006-07-01
A peer-reviewed study found statistically unusual pre-attack put-option activity in airline stocks.
human_seed · seeded · Peer-reviewed unusual put volume.
Paul Zarembka — Insider trading before 9/11 re-examined (Toronto Report ch.6)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
A 2012 hearing paper surveys three academic option-market studies and argues the combined pre-attack activity is not plausibly random, while treating UAL/AMR themselves as weak because of hedging.
human_seed · seeded · Zarembka surveys Poteshman/Wong/Chesney as combined non-random activity. Derivative of EVD-132.
neutral1
Stratesec / Marvin Bush board role at a firm with WTC security work
Composite tertiary web commentary (circular-sourcing demonstration) · 2005-01-01
A firm with some WTC security work had a Bush family board member years before 9/11.
human_seed · seeded · Stratesec/Bush-board adjacency is not securities trading.
contradicts1
Commission/SEC: no evidence anyone with advance knowledge profited in securities
9/11 Commission / SEC review of pre-attack securities trading · 2004-07-22
The Commission published a negative finding on securities profits by people with advance knowledge of the attacks.
human_seed · seeded · Commission/SEC: no profits by people with advance knowledge.
Human review can dispute any AI or seeded link. Seeded links are labelled and are not silent overwrites.
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