EFI·Evidence Fusion Initiative

EVD-132

Poteshman 2006: unusual put-option volume on airlines before 9/11

academic paperacademicauthenticoriginal

Provenance

Source
Allen M. Poteshman, 'Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001,' Journal of Business 79(4) (2006)
Date
2006-07-01
Page
Journal of Business 79(4), 2006
SHA-256
3dc0deee1106bfc17420e47db82011a35fdb9c55257fb45a424e157254f34a2e
Classification
unclassified
Copyright
fair use research

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/503645

Quality 2.88 / 5components retained
Prov3
Auth4
Ind4
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Observation

A peer-reviewed study found statistically unusual pre-attack put-option activity in airline stocks.

Interpretation

Supports 'someone in the market was positioned.' Does not identify who or that they knew the plot.

Source text

OBSERVATION: A Journal of Business paper measures abnormal put-call activity on airline stocks before the attacks.

The Commission/SEC (EVD-118) found no profits by people with advance knowledge of the plot. Those two statements can coexist: unusual activity may be hedge-fund positioning, rumour, or unidentified informed traders.

H012 remains possible, not demonstrated as al-Qaeda or U.S.-official trading.

Hypothesis linkage

  • H012supportsseeded

    Peer-reviewed unusual put volume.

People

    Citations

    Developed by British researcher Moneypenny

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