Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
The Osama Bin Laden File (NSAEBB 343)
56%
More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources
The score is 56% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.
How 56% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 89%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 11% remaining certainty = 56%.
Supporting sources
5
Weighted strength 1.43
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
35
Pulls the score toward 50% · 11.24
Uncertainty
89%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.89) = 0.555
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
No stored question matched closely enough. Near misses: H019. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 3 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
0 labelled from stored question links, 5 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 35 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 1.43, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 11.24. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.89) = 0.555.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
- 5 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 7 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 35 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
Matching claims
- partially_supportedCLM-041
The U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden more than 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.
- well_supportedCLM-042
About three-quarters of CIA materials cited by the 9/11 Commission, including all KSM interrogation reports, remained withheld as of the 2012 File posting.
- well_supportedCLM-039
CIA senior products in summer 2001 described Bin Ladin attacks as imminent, including a strike in the US, without time/place/target.
Sources that support this
5CIA 9/11 File posting — 100+ FOIA documents, 19 June 2012
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2012-06-19
In 2012 the National Security Archive posted 100+ CIA documents cited in Commission footnotes, and stated that this was about one-quarter of the CIA material the Commission cited, with KSM interrogation reports still withheld.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-042.
Taliban File update: U.S. pressed Taliban to expel UBL over 30 times
The Taliban File (NSAEBB 97) and updates · 2004-01-30
The National Security Archive's Taliban File update states the U.S. pressed the Taliban to expel bin Laden over 30 times, with only three approaches in the first Bush year.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-041.
DCI Report draft 19 March 2004: FBI dissemination still 'spotty'; cultures clash
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2004-03-19
A March 2004 CIA draft history says FBI internal dissemination remained so weak that CIA officers still hand-delivered messages, and that FBI-CIA cultural clash impeded results.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-042.
PDB 6 August 2001: Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US
President's Daily Brief, 6 August 2001 — 'Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US' · 2001-08-06
The President received a 6 August 2001 brief stating Bin Ladin was determined to strike in the United States, including hijacking-related patterns.
claim stance · Inherited from matching claim CLM-039.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
35The Osama Bin Laden File (NSAEBB 343), posted 2 May 2011
The Osama Bin Laden File (NSAEBB 343) · 2011-05-02
On the day of bin Laden's death the National Security Archive posted an Osama Bin Laden File that is an index of prior FOIA briefing books on UBL, Pakistan, and the Taliban.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Predator over Afghanistan, autumn 2000: likely UBL, no shoot capability
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2004-03-19
CIA notes in the 2012 File say an unarmed Predator twice observed a person most likely to be bin Laden in autumn 2000 and could not act.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
1998 raw intelligence: UBL hijack trial run at a New York airport
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 1998-12-03
A December 1998 CIA raw report, later a PDB item, stated that a UBL-linked hijack plan was proceeding and that two team members in the U.S. had evaded security in a New York airport trial run.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
April 2000: CTC/UBL to move from offensive to defensive for budget reasons
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2000-04-05
A 5 April 2000 CIA note says the bin Laden unit would move from offensive to defensive posture because a counterterrorism supplemental was still stuck at NSC-OMB.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Phoenix memo, 10 July 2001: bin Laden students at U.S. aviation schools
FBI Phoenix Electronic Communication, 10 July 2001 (Kenneth Williams) · 2001-07-10
An FBI agent documented a bin Laden–flight-school hypothesis in July 2001 that was not actioned nationally before the attacks.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA CTC 2003-40044HC — '11 September: The Plot and the Plotters'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2003-06-01
A 1 June 2003 CIA CTC report titled 11 September: The Plot and the Plotters exists, is a major Commission source, and includes the analytical claim that the Saudi composition of the teams had political as well as visa-access value.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
September 11th Sourcebooks index (NSArchive volumes I–VII and updates)
National Security Archive — September 11th Sourcebooks · 2026-09-03
The National Security Archive organised a September 11th Sourcebook series of at least seven volumes plus later FOIA postings on Clarke, FAA, and NTSB transcripts.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA IG August 2001: CTC practices reviewed positively — vs later OIG/Commission
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-01
NSArchive records that a CIA Inspector General review completed in August 2001 praised CTC information-management and FBI cooperation, in contrast to the 2004 CIA OIG and the Commission.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.