EFI/911

EFI·Evidence Fusion Initiative

Fact or Fiction

Fact or Fiction

Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.

Likelihood

Journal of 9/11 Studies

More than 50%

52%

Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way

0% — fully contradicted50%100% — fully supported

The score is 52% — more than 50%. Supporting sources currently outweigh contradicting sources after quality and confidence are applied.

How 52% was calculated

Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 96%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 4% remaining certainty = 52%.

Supporting sources

2

Weighted strength 0.55

Contradicting sources

0

Weighted strength 0.00

No stance yet

39

Pulls the score toward 50% · 11.86

Uncertainty

96%

Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing

Working

start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)

0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.96) = 0.520

This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.

Reasoning

  1. Step 1 · Match the question

    No stored question matched closely enough. Near misses: H007, H021. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.

  2. Step 2 · Find matching sources

    40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 1 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.

  3. Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing

    0 labelled from stored question links, 2 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 39 left with no stance.

  4. Step 4 · Weight each source

    Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 0.55, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 11.86. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.

  5. Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage

    Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.96) = 0.520.

  6. Step 6 · What this number is not

    This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.

What is still missing

  • This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
  • 5 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
  • 4 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
  • 39 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.

Related questions

Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.

Matching claims

  • well_supportedCLM-042

    About three-quarters of CIA materials cited by the 9/11 Commission, including all KSM interrogation reports, remained withheld as of the 2012 File posting.

Sources that support this

2

Sources that contradict this

0

None in this calculation.

Sources with no stance yet

39

Topics

Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.

Developed by British researcher Moneypenny

@nic_moneypenny · Subscribe on X from $2 a month for other investigations, and to support this work.

Built with Grok by xAI. EFI / 911 is an independent research project. Neither Moneypenny nor xAI, X, or Grok accepts any liability for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Scores are not court or government findings. Privacy and terms.