Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040
50%
Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way
The score is 50%. Supporting and contradicting sources cancel, or there is not enough directional evidence to tip the number.
How 50% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 100%. So 50% + 50% × 0.00 × 0% remaining certainty = 50%.
Supporting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
40
Pulls the score toward 50% · 13.31
Uncertainty
100%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 0.00 × (1 − 1.00) = 0.500
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
No stored question matched closely enough. Search is by keywords in the records only. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 0 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
0 labelled from stored question links, 0 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 40 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 0, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 13.31. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.00 × (1 − 1.00) = 0.500.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
- 2 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 2 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 40 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
Sources that support this
0None in this calculation.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
40FBI analytical statement: 50/50 chance Bayoumi had advance knowledge
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
An FBI analytical product assigned even odds to Bayoumi's advance knowledge of the attacks.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
FBI: Thumairy tasked an associate; 'two very significant people'
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2021-09-11
Declassified FBI reporting asserts Thumairy tasked help and described the pair as very significant before the attacks.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
FBI 2017: Bayoumi paid as GIP cooptee via Ambassador Bandar
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
An official FBI analytical document asserts Bayoumi was a paid GIP cooptee through Bandar, 1998–2001.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
FBI 2017: Commission-era non-confirmation, later confirmation of intel role
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
FBI 2017 text asserts the intelligence-role allegation was unconfirmed in 2004 and is now confirmed.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
FBI 2017: Bayoumi reporting channel through Bandar to GIP
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2017-06-14
FBI analysis describes Bayoumi as a community collector reporting via the ambassador.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Bayoumi video of the U.S. Capitol and other sites
FBI materials released under Executive Order 14040 · 2022-03-01
Video associated with Bayoumi includes Washington, D.C. landmarks.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA 9/11 File posting — 100+ FOIA documents, 19 June 2012
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2012-06-19
In 2012 the National Security Archive posted 100+ CIA documents cited in Commission footnotes, and stated that this was about one-quarter of the CIA material the Commission cited, with KSM interrogation reports still withheld.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
1 February 2000 restaurant encounter — chance or design unknown
9/11 Commission Report · 2004-07-22
A lunch on 1 February 2000 involving Bayoumi, Hazmi, and Mihdhar is documented because Bayoumi reported it.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.