Fact or Fiction
Fact or Fiction
Ask any question, including odd ones. You get a percentage, a clear call of more or less than 50%, the working, and the sources that produced it. If nothing matches, the score stays at 50% — nothing is invented.
Likelihood
FBI Phoenix Electronic Communication, 10 July 2001 (Kenneth Williams)
50%
Equal to 50% — the sources do not tip either way
The score is 50%. Supporting and contradicting sources cancel, or there is not enough directional evidence to tip the number.
How 50% was calculated
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 0.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 100%. So 50% + 50% × 0.00 × 0% remaining certainty = 50%.
Supporting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
Contradicting sources
0
Weighted strength 0.00
No stance yet
40
Pulls the score toward 50% · 13.41
Uncertainty
100%
Share of the file that is unlabelled or missing
Working
start at 50% + half of (net source score × remaining certainty)
0.5 + 0.5 × 0.00 × (1 − 1.00) = 0.500
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
Reasoning
Step 1 · Match the question
No stored question matched closely enough. Near misses: H020, H008. Unlabelled records are not given a fake yes or no.
Step 2 · Find matching sources
40 source(s) matched the wording. 0 further source(s) already linked to the stored question were included even if they did not contain the search words. 0 matching claim(s) contributed inherited stances.
Step 3 · Assign support or contradiction without inventing
0 labelled from stored question links, 0 from claims, 0 labelled automatically (capped, marked, not saved as human review), 40 left with no stance.
Step 4 · Weight each source
Each source contributes strength = (quality / 5) × confidence × how strongly it agrees or disagrees. Support strength 0, contradict strength 0, no-stance strength 13.41. A zero on chain of custody still lowers the mean and stays visible.
Step 5 · Turn that into a percentage
Start at 50%. Move up if support outweighs contradiction, down if the reverse. Unlabelled sources shrink the movement, so a thin file stays near 50%. Working: 0.5 + 0.5 × 0.00 × (1 − 1.00) = 0.500.
Step 6 · What this number is not
This percentage is calculated from the sources listed below — it is a score, not a court finding. Official origin does not add extra weight. Independent origin does not subtract weight. Two papers from the same group are one cluster, not two independent confirmations.
What is still missing
- This question does not match a stored key question closely enough to inherit yes/no labels. Matching records stay unlabelled so the score does not invent a stance.
- 5 source(s) score zero on at least one quality check (shown on each card). Those zeros are kept visible and are not averaged away.
- 5 source(s) are unverified, inactive, or recorded as not retrieved. A missing file is a gap, not a finding against the question.
- 40 relevant source(s) have no stance yet. They increase uncertainty and pull the percentage toward 50%; they are not counted as support or contradiction.
Related questions
Same wording can map to more than one stored question. Each has its own percentage — do not average them.
Sources that support this
0None in this calculation.
Sources that contradict this
0None in this calculation.
Sources with no stance yet
40Phoenix memo, 10 July 2001: bin Laden students at U.S. aviation schools
FBI Phoenix Electronic Communication, 10 July 2001 (Kenneth Williams) · 2001-07-10
An FBI agent documented a bin Laden–flight-school hypothesis in July 2001 that was not actioned nationally before the attacks.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
SHSU LibGuide page: 9/11 Attack, Afghan and Iraq Wars
SHSU Library — U.S. History: Primary Source Collections Online (9/11 page) · 2026-04-16
On 3 September 2026 the SHSU guide listed eight 9/11-related collections and one Iraq-war Veterans History Project link, with the annotations quoted in full_text.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
Coleen Rowley: FBI HQ blocked a FISA search of Moussaoui's laptop
Coleen Rowley memo to FBI Director Mueller (May 2002) on the Moussaoui case · 2002-05-21
A flight-school student connected to radical jihadist travel was in FBI custody before 11 September; a requested FISA search was not obtained.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Lorie Van Auken and Bob McIlvaine — Toronto Report ch.1 family testimony
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Two 9/11 family members testified in 2011 about their dead, the Jersey Girls' campaign for a full investigation, three NORAD public timelines, and Van Auken's contemporaneous unease at the Florida classroom footage.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
David Ray Griffin — Anomalies in official accounts of AA77 and UA93 (Toronto Report ch.7)
The 9/11 Toronto Report (2012), International Hearings on the Events of September 11, 2001 · 2012-09-11
Griffin's 2012 chapter lists named process contradictions on AA77 notification and UA93 notification, plus Pentagon-object and UA93-shoot-down arguments with named witnesses and an FAA memo.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
September 11 Digital Archive — holdings statement
September 11 Digital Archive (RRCHNM / ASHP) · 2026-09-03
The Archive states a 150,000-item holding and a 2003 Library of Congress acquisition. Public Omeka browse listed 70,359 items on 3 Sep 2026.
unclassified · zeros: contemporaneity · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Quality zeros remain visible: contemporaneity.
PDB 6 August 2001: Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US
President's Daily Brief, 6 August 2001 — 'Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US' · 2001-08-06
The President received a 6 August 2001 brief stating Bin Ladin was determined to strike in the United States, including hijacking-related patterns.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
CIA email 21 August 2001: 'Re: Khalid Al-Mihdhar'
The Central Intelligence Agency's 9/11 File (NSAEBB 381) · 2001-08-21
A CIA email dated 21 August 2001 is titled Re: Khalid Al-Mihdhar and is a Commission Chapter 8 citation.
unclassified · Retrieved as relevant; no inherited polarity. Unclassified mass raises uncertainty rather than inventing support or contradiction.
Topics
Day-of events, engineering questions, process failures, and foreknowledge leads.