H020
Specific pre-attack warnings (Odigo and similar) show that some non-plot actors knew the morning's targeting
Odigo company confirmation of a warning message; other rumoured warnings. Distinct from general PDB/Phoenix threat awareness.
Likelihood — more or less than 50%
64%
More than 50% — weakly supported by the sources
Start at 50%. Move by half of the net source score after uncertainty. Net source score is 1.00 (from −1 contradict to +1 support). Uncertainty is 73%. So 50% + 50% × 1.00 × 27% remaining certainty = 64%.
0.5 + 0.5 × 1.00 × (1 − 0.73) = 0.635
Recalculate with sourcesAdversarial challenge
- Contradicting objects: 0
- Supporting objects: 1
- Distinct source classes: 2
- Objects with a zero quality dimension: 0
Version history
v1 · 2001-09-28 · conf 0.20 · unc 0.65
Odigo confirmed a message; sender and content are not in the public primary file.
supports1
Odigo: two employees received a warning message about two hours before the first impact
Odigo instant-message warning reports (Ha'aretz / Washington Post, 2001) · 2001-09-28
Odigo confirmed that two employees received a pre-attack warning message; origin not established in public files.
human_seed · seeded · Odigo confirmed a pre-attack warning message.
indeterminate1
PDB 6 August 2001: Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US
President's Daily Brief, 6 August 2001 — 'Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US' · 2001-08-06
The President received a 6 August 2001 brief stating Bin Ladin was determined to strike in the United States, including hijacking-related patterns.
human_seed · seeded · PDB is general threat awareness, not a morning-of targeting warning.
Human review can dispute any AI or seeded link. Seeded links are labelled and are not silent overwrites.
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